Journal Article

Predicting Landslide Susceptibility Using Cost Function in Low-Relief Areas: A Case Study of the Urban Municipality of Attecoube (Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Gnagne, Frédéric Lorng, Demoulin, Alain, Biémi, Jean, Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia, Kouadio, Hélène Boyossoro, Schmitz, Serge

2025

Overview

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km2) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures.

• Publisher: MDPI AG,MDPI
• Subject: Accuracy / Algorithms / Altitude / Artificial intelligence / Attecoube / Climate change / Coasts / Cost function / cost-curve function / Curvature / Digital Elevation Models / Disaster management / Disasters / Drainage / Drainage area / Drainage patterns / Earth sciences & physical geography / Emergency preparedness / Fatalities / Geographic information systems / Geomorphology / greater Abidjan / Human influences / Land use / Land use management / Land use planning / landslide inventory / Landslides / Landslides & mudslides / logistic regression model / Machine learning / Normalized difference vegetative index / Optimization / Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences / Physique, chimie, mathématiques & sciences de la terre / prediction accuracy / Prediction models / Regression analysis / Remote sensing / Risk management / Risk reduction / Sciences de la terre & géographie physique / Soils / Spatial analysis / Statistical analysis / Statistical methods / Susceptibility / Urban areas / West Africa