Journal Article

Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America

de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo, Lorençone, Pedro Antonio, Torsoni, Guilherme Botega, de Souza Rolim, Glauco, Lorençone, João Antonio

2025

Overview

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is a globally significant cereal crop, widely used in both food production and brewing. However, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme temperature fluctuations, which can severely reduce yields. To address this challenge, a detailed climate zoning study was conducted to assess the suitability of barley production areas across South America, considering both current conditions and future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study utilized historical climate data along with projections from the CMIP6 IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the period 2021–2100. Several indices, such as evapotranspiration, were calculated, and factors like soil composition and topography were integrated into the classification of regions based on their agricultural potential. Critical variables in this assessment included temperature, precipitation, and water or thermal excess. The results showed that 6.59% of South America's territory is currently suitable for barley cultivation without additional irrigation, with these regions concentrated primarily in temperate southern areas. In contrast, 18.62% of the region is already unsuitable due to excessive heat. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate a shrinking of suitable areas, alongside an expansion of unsuitable regions. In the worst-case scenario, only 1.48% of the territory would remain viable for barley farming. These findings emphasize the crop's vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the urgency of developing agricultural adaptation strategies. The predicted contraction in suitable barley cultivation areas demonstrates the profound impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for proactive measures to ensure sustainable barley production in South America.

• Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Agriculture / Animal Physiology / Barley / Biological and Medical Physics / Biophysics / Cereal crops / climate / Climate Change / Climate prediction / Climatic data / Crop production / Cultivation / Earth and Environmental Science / Environment / Environmental Health / Environmental impact / Evapotranspiration / Food production / Future climates / Grain cultivation / heat / Hordeum - growth & development / Hordeum vulgare / Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / irrigation / meteorological data / Meteorology / Original Paper / Plant Physiology / Soil classification / Soil composition / Soil temperature / South America / Temperature / Temperature extremes / Temperature fluctuations / topography / United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change