Journal Article

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

Al-Dahidi, Sameer, Alahmer, Ali, Al-Ghussain, Loiy, Alrbai, Mohammad, Ahmad, Adnan Darwish, Alahmer, Hussein, Madhiarasan, Manoharan, Abubaker, Ahmad M., Baraldi, Piero, Aghaei, Mohammadreza, Zio, Enrico

2024

Overview

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

• Publisher: MDPI AG,MDPI
• Subject: Accuracy / Algorithms / Alternative energy sources / Art techniques / Artificial intelligence / Electricity / Electricity distribution / Energy industry / Energy management systems / ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY / Engineering Sciences / Forecasting / Forecasting techniques / grid management / International agreements / Machine learning / Methods / Neural networks / Optimization / Photovoltaic power generation / power prediction / prediction accuracy / Radiation / renewable energy sources / Renewable resources / Scheduling (Management) / SOLAR ENERGY / solar photovoltaic power / systematic and integrative framework