Journal Article

Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends

Chen, Yi, Wei, Xing, Song, Xiao, Shi, Peijun, Zhang, Zhao, Tao, Fulu, Wang, Pin

2014

Overview

Temperature is the principal factor that determines rice growth, development and ultimately grain yield. In this study, normal growing-degree-days (NGDD) and killing growing-degree-days (KGDD) were used to capture the different effects of normal and extreme temperatures on rice yields, respectively. Based on these indexes, we assessed the contributions of temperature variations to county-level rice yields across China during the historical period (1980–2008), and estimated the potential exposure of rice to extreme temperature stress in the near future (2021–2050). The results showed that historical temperature variations had measurable impacts on rice yields with a distinct spatial pattern: for different regions, such variations had contributed much to the increased rice yields in Northeast China (Region I) (0.59 % yield year⁻¹) and some portions of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (Region II) (0.34 % yield year⁻¹), but seriously hindered the improvements of rice yields in the Sichuan Basin (SB) (−0.29 % yield year⁻¹) and the southern cultivation areas (Region IV) (−0.17 % yield year⁻¹); for the entire country, half of the contributions were positive and the other half were negative, resulting in a balance pattern with an average of 0.01 % yield year⁻¹. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, climate warming during 2021–2050 would substantially reduce cold stress but increase heat stress in the rice planting areas across China. For the future period, Region I, II and eastern China would be continually exposed to more severe cold stress than the other regions; Region III (including SB and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR)) would be the hot spot of heat stress.

• Publisher: Springer-Verlag,Springer Netherlands,Springer,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage / Agricultural and forest meteorology / Agricultural production / Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions / Atmospheric Sciences / Basins / Biological and medical sciences / China / Climate / Climate change / Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts / Climatology, meteorology / Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change / cold stress / Crop yield / Datasets / Earth and Environmental Science / Earth Sciences / Earth, ocean, space / Exact sciences and technology / External geophysics / Freshwater / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / General agronomy. Plant production / Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production / Global warming / grain yield / Heat / Heat stress / Heat tolerance / Hot spots / Laboratories / Meteorology / Oryza sativa / Phenology / Plant growth / Planting / plateaus / Provinces / Rice / Stresses / Temperature / Temperature effects / Trends / Weather / Yangtze River