Journal Article

Uncertainty Analysis in QUAL2E Model of Zayandeh-Rood River

Tajrishy, M., Abrishamchi, A., Shafieian, P.

2005

Overview

Water-quality modeling and prediction is a complicated task because of inherent randomness and uncertainties associated with various processes and variables throughout the stream environment and the lack of appropriate data. Hence, the results of mathematical models are always approximate, lying within an uncertainty. This paper describes and demonstrates the application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's water-quality model, QUAL2E-UNCAS, to the Zayandeh-Rood River in Iran. First-order reliability analysis is used to examine the variability of predicted water-quality parameters of total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, and biochemical oxygen demand. This analysis also determines key sources of uncertainty affecting prediction of the water-quality parameters. The results show that reliability analysis can help water-quality modelers and planners to quantify the reliability of the water-quality predictions and to carry out more efficiently planned sampling and data collection programs to reduce model-prediction uncertainty.

• Publisher: Water Environment Federation,Blackwell Publishing Ltd
• Subject: Analysis / Applied sciences / Biochemical oxygen demand / Coefficients / Continental surface waters / Data collection / Discharge coefficient / Dissolved oxygen / Earth sciences / Earth, ocean, space / Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics / Environmental protection / Exact sciences and technology / first‐order reliability analysis / Forecasting / Headwaters / Mathematical independent variables / Mathematical models / Modeling / Models, Theoretical / Natural water pollution / Parametric models / Pollution / Pollution, environment geology / Predictions / QUAL2E model / Quality Control / Rain / Reproducibility of Results / Research Papers / Rivers / Sensitivity analysis / Simulations / Statistical variance / streamwater quality / Total dissolved solids / Uncertainty / uncertainty analysis / Water Pollutants - analysis / Water quality / Water Supply - standards / Water treatment and pollution / Zayandeh‐Rood River