Asset Details

MbrlCatalogueTitleDetail

Do you wish to reserve the book?

Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model

by Hu, W. B. , Jing, Q. L. , Lu, J. H. , Marshall, J. M. , Cheng, Q. , Yang, Z. C.

in Aedes / Animals / Aquatic insects / Arboviruses / Autoregressive models / China - epidemiology / Cities / Climate change / Communicable Diseases, Imported - epidemiology / Communicable Diseases, Imported - transmission / Dengue - epidemiology / Dengue - prevention & control / Dengue - transmission / Dengue fever / Disease control / Disease prevention / Disease transmission / Epidemics / Epidemiology / Ethics / Humans / Incidence / Infections / Infectious diseases / Medicine / Model testing / Models, Statistical / Mosquito Vectors / Mosquitoes / Multivariate Analysis / Original Paper / Outbreaks / Rain / Regression analysis / Risk factors / Sensitivity and Specificity / Surveillance / Temperature / Temperature effects / Time series / Tropical diseases / Vector-borne diseases / Viral diseases

2018

Yes Please

Hey, we have placed the reservation for you!

By the way, why not check out events that you can attend while you pick your title.

Oops! Something went wrong.

Looks like we were not able to place the reservation. Kindly try again later.

Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?

Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model

by Hu, W. B. , Jing, Q. L. , Lu, J. H. , Marshall, J. M. , Cheng, Q. , Yang, Z. C.

2018

Confirm

Do you wish to request the book?

Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model

by Hu, W. B. , Jing, Q. L. , Lu, J. H. , Marshall, J. M. , Cheng, Q. , Yang, Z. C.

2018

Please be aware that the book you have requested cannot be checked out. If you would like to checkout this book, you can reserve another copy

How would you like to get it?

Submit

We have requested the book for you!

Your request is successful and it will be processed during the Library working hours. Please check the status of your request in My Requests.

Oops! Something went wrong.

Looks like we were not able to place your request. Kindly try again later.

Journal Article

Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model

Hu, W. B.,

Jing, Q. L.,

Lu, J. H.,

Marshall, J. M.,

Cheng, Q.,

Yang, Z. C.

2018

Overview

Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections ( P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test RMSE (0.6445), as well as the best effect in model validation for testing outbreak with a sensitivity of 1.0000, a specificity of 0.7368 and a consistency rate of 0.7917. Our findings suggest that imported cases and minimum temperature are two key determinants of dengue local transmission in Guangzhou. The modelling method can be used to predict dengue transmission in non-endemic countries and to inform dengue prevention and control strategies.

Share this book

Add to My Shelf

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Subject

Aedes

/ Animals

/ Aquatic insects

/ Arboviruses

/ Autoregressive models

/ China - epidemiology

/ Cities