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Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall
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Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall
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Journal Article
Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall
2026
Overview
Most studies on tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate focus on long-term variability, yet the short-term (days or shorter) variations across the TC lifecycle, with a particular focus on the period before landfall, are most critical because they strongly influence flood risk. Using satellite data, we show that, globally, the mean rain rate of TCs increases by over 20% from 60 hours before landfall to the time of landfall. This increase occurs across hemispheres, ocean basins, intensity categories, and latitudes, although the magnitude varies. As a TC approaches the coast, land-sea thermal contrasts raise low-level humidity over land, while frictional differences enhance convergence, upward motion, and instability on the offshore side of the circulation. These conditions collectively promote increased convection and precipitation of TCs as they near landfall. Our findings critically strengthen the current understanding of TC precipitation dynamics and support more effective flood management.
Tropical cyclone rain rates rise by over 20% in the 60 hours before landfall, which is driven by land–sea thermal and friction contrasts, heightening coastal flood risk. In addition, this enhancement has implications for forecasting and preparedness.
