Journal Article

Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

Stohlgren, Thomas J., Jarnevich, Catherine S., Evangelista, Paul H., Crall, Alycia W., Norman III, John B., Kumar, Sunil, Barnett, David T.

2008

Overview

Predicting suitable habitat and the potential distribution of invasive species is a high priority for resource managers and systems ecologists. Most models are designed to identify habitat characteristics that define the ecological niche of a species with little consideration to individual species' traits. We tested five commonly used modelling methods on two invasive plant species, the habitat generalist Bromus tectorum and habitat specialist Tamarix chinensis, to compare model performances, evaluate predictability, and relate results to distribution traits associated with each species. Most of the tested models performed similarly for each species; however, the generalist species proved to be more difficult to predict than the specialist species. The highest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values with independent validation data sets of B. tectorum and T. chinensis was 0.503 and 0.885, respectively. Similarly, a confusion matrix for B. tectorum had the highest overall accuracy of 55%, while the overall accuracy for T. chinensis was 85%. Models for the generalist species had varying performances, poor evaluations, and inconsistent results. This may be a result of a generalist's capability to persist in a wide range of environmental conditions that are not easily defined by the data, independent variables or model design. Models for the specialist species had consistently strong performances, high evaluations, and similar results among different model applications. This is likely a consequence of the specialist's requirement for explicit environmental resources and ecological barriers that are easily defined by predictive models. Although defining new invaders as generalist or specialist species can be challenging, model performances and evaluations may provide valuable information on a species' potential invasiveness.

• Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd,Blackwell Publishing,Blackwell,John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Applied ecology / Biodiversity Research / Biological and medical sciences / Biological invasions / Botany / Bromus tectorum / Conservation / data collection / Ecological invasion / Ecological modeling / ecological niche modelling / Ecologists / Environmental conditions / environmental factors / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / General aspects / General aspects. Techniques / generalist species / Habitats / Invasive plants / Invasive species / Invasiveness / Logistic regression / managers / Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...) / Modeling / Niches / non-native species / Nonnative species / Plant species / Plants / prediction / Prediction models / Predictive modeling / predictive modelling / specialist species / Species / Tamarix chinensis