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Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
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Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
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Journal Article
Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
2023
Overview
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~ 100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed historical warming response to historical forcing and their uncertainty spread is just as wide, mainly due to forcing uncertainty, and especially that of aerosols. Contrary, no aerosols are involved in solar-cycle forcing, providing an independent, tighter, constraint. Here, we define a climate sensitivity metric: time-dependent response regressed against time-dependent forcing, allowing phenomena with dissimilar time variations, such as the solar cycle with 11-year cyclic forcing, to be used to constrain TCR, which has a linear time-dependent forcing. We find a theoretical linear relationship between the two. The latest coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models obey the same linear relationship statistically. The proposed observational constraint on TCR is about
1
/
3
as narrow as existing constraints. The central estimate, 2.2
o
C, is at the midpoint of the spread of the latest generation of climate models, which are more sensitive than those of the previous generations.
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
Subject
