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Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
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Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
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Journal Article
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
2024
Overview
Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species’ ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes.
Using a joint species distribution model fitted to 61 species, this study shows that the habitat of Arctic fish might be hugely reduced in the next decades, and potentially eliminated from the Barents Sea. Boreal species are shown to expand their habitat, leading to increased species richness in the area and a diversification of dominance, but this might not increase overall biomass.
