Journal Article

Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models

Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Khaliq, Tasneem, Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad, Ahmad, Ashfaq, Yasin, Mubashra, Ghafoor, Iqra, Niaz, Salma, Gaiser, Thomas, Hassan, Hafiz Suboor ul, Qasim, Muhammad

2022

Overview

Future climate scenarios are predicting considerable threats to sustainable maize production in arid and semi-arid regions. These adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting modern agricultural tools to assess and develop successful adaptation practices. A multi-model approach (climate and crop) was used to assess the impacts and uncertainties of climate change on maize crop. An extensive field study was conducted to explore the temporal thermal variations on maize hybrids grown at farmer’s fields for ten sowing dates during two consecutive growing years. Data about phenology, morphology, biomass development, and yield were recorded by adopting standard procedures and protocols. The CSM-CERES, APSIM, and CSM-IXIM-Maize models were calibrated and evaluated. Five GCMs among 29 were selected based on classification into different groups and uncertainty to predict climatic changes in the future. The results predicted that there would be a rise in temperature (1.57–3.29 °C) during the maize growing season in five General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using RCP 8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2040–2069) as compared with the baseline (1980–2015). The CERES-Maize and APSIM-Maize model showed lower root mean square error values (2.78 and 5.41), higher d -index (0.85 and 0.87) along reliable R 2 (0.89 and 0.89), respectively for days to anthesis and maturity, while the CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for growth parameters (leaf area index, total dry matter) and yield with reasonably good statistical indices. The CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for all hybrids during both years whereas climate models, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-MR, showed less uncertain results for climate change impacts. Maize models along GCMs predicted a reduction in yield (8–55%) than baseline. Maize crop may face a high yield decline that could be overcome by modifying the sowing dates and fertilizer (fertigation) and heat and drought-tolerant hybrids.

• Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Adaptation / Agricultural production / Agriculture - methods / APSIM-Maize / Aquatic Pollution / Arid regions / Arid zones / Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution / biomass / Cereal crops / CERES-Maize / Climate Change / Climate Models / Climate prediction / Climate variability / Corn / Crop production / Crop yield / Crops / CSM-IXIM / Drought resistance / drought tolerance / Dry matter / Earth and Environmental Science / Ecotoxicology / Environment / Environmental Chemistry / Environmental Health / Environmental impact / Environmental science / farmers / fertigation / fertilizers / flowering / General circulation models / Growing season / heat / Hybrids / LAI / Leaf area / Leaf area index / Maize hybrids / Mathematical models / Phenology / pollution / Research Article / Semi arid areas / Semiarid zones / Sowing time / Sustainable maize production / Sustainable production / TDM / temperature / Uncertainty / Waste Water Technology / Water Management / Water Pollution Control / Yield / Zea mays