Asset Details
Do you wish to reserve the book?
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics
Hey, we have placed the reservation for you!
By the way, why not check out events that you can attend while you pick your title.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place the reservation. Kindly try again later.
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics
Do you wish to request the book?
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics
Please be aware that the book you have requested cannot be checked out. If you would like to checkout this book, you can reserve another copy
We have requested the book for you!
Your request is successful and it will be processed during the Library working hours. Please check the status of your request in My Requests.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place your request. Kindly try again later.
Journal Article
Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics
2018
Overview
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.
Publisher
Routledge,Routledge Taylor & Francis Group,Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics and Political Science
Subject
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
/ Adult
/ Age
/ AIDS
/ Child
/ cohort component projection method
/ Estimation and Projection Package
/ Extended projection principle
/ Female
/ HIV
/ HIV Infections - epidemiology
/ Human immunodeficiency virus
/ Humans
/ Infant
/ Male
/ Population Forecast - methods
/ Sexually transmitted diseases
/ Spectrum
/ STD
/ UNAIDS
/ Validity
