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How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

by Schipper, E. Lisa F. , Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura , Klok, Lisette , Burt, Stephen , Hawkins, Ed , Slater, Louise J. , Fischer, Erich M. , Kelder, Timo , Thompson, Vikki , van Bueren, Ellen , Goulart, Henrique M. D. , Stephens, Elisabeth M. , van den Hurk, Bart , van der Wiel, Karin , Coughlan de Perez, Erin , Heinrich, Dorothy , de Vries, Hylke , Carmona Baéz, Antonio , Wilby, Robert L.

in 704/106/694/2739 / 704/844/841 / Adaptation / Climate adaptation / Climate science / Disaster management / Emergency preparedness / Hazards / Humanities and Social Sciences / multidisciplinary / Oral history / Perspective / Resilience / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Weather / Weather hazards

2025

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2025

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2025

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Journal Article

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Schipper, E. Lisa F.,

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura,

Klok, Lisette,

Burt, Stephen,

Hawkins, Ed,

Slater, Louise J.,

Fischer, Erich M.,

Kelder, Timo,

Thompson, Vikki,

van Bueren, Ellen,

Goulart, Henrique M. D.,

Stephens, Elisabeth M.,

van den Hurk, Bart,

van der Wiel, Karin,

Coughlan de Perez, Erin,

Heinrich, Dorothy,

de Vries, Hylke,

Carmona Baéz, Antonio,

Wilby, Robert L.

2025

Overview

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather. Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of transformative, incremental, and reactive adaptation strategies to achieve enhanced resilience.

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Publisher

Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio

Subject

/ Disaster management

/ Emergency preparedness