Asset Details
Do you wish to reserve the book?
Comparison of estimates of global flood models for flood hazard and exposed gross domestic product: a China case study
Hey, we have placed the reservation for you!
By the way, why not check out events that you can attend while you pick your title.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place the reservation. Kindly try again later.
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
Comparison of estimates of global flood models for flood hazard and exposed gross domestic product: a China case study
Do you wish to request the book?
Comparison of estimates of global flood models for flood hazard and exposed gross domestic product: a China case study
Please be aware that the book you have requested cannot be checked out. If you would like to checkout this book, you can reserve another copy
We have requested the book for you!
Your request is successful and it will be processed during the Library working hours. Please check the status of your request in My Requests.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place your request. Kindly try again later.
Journal Article
Comparison of estimates of global flood models for flood hazard and exposed gross domestic product: a China case study
2020
Overview
Over the past decade global flood hazard models have been developed and
continuously improved. There is now a significant demand for testing
global hazard maps generated by these models in order to understand their
applicability for international risk reduction strategies and for
reinsurance portfolio risk assessments using catastrophe models. We expand
on existing methods for comparing global hazard maps and analyse eight global
flood models (GFMs) that represent the current state of the global flood
modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study and,
for the first time, include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood
protection standards in the analysis. In doing so, we provide new insights
into how these components change the results of this comparison. We find
substantial variability, up to a factor of 4, between the flood hazard maps in
the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods
(ranging from 5 to 1500 years) and in expected annual exposed GDP. The
inclusion of industry models, which currently model flooding at a higher
spatial resolution and which additionally include pluvial flooding,
strongly improves the comparison and provides important new benchmarks. We
find that the addition of pluvial flooding can increase the expected annual
exposed GDP by as much as 1.3 percentage points. Our findings strongly highlight
the importance of flood defences for a realistic risk assessment in
countries like China that are characterized by high concentrations of
exposure. Even an incomplete (1.74 % of the area of China) but locally
detailed layer of structural defences in high-exposure areas reduces the
expected annual exposed GDP to fluvial and pluvial flooding from 4.1 % to 2.8 %.
