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Nonlinear association between visceral fat metabolism score and heart failure: insights from LightGBM modeling and SHAP-Driven feature interpretation in NHANES
by
Cheng, Ningyi
, Chen, Liangwan
, Chen, Yukun
, Jin, Lei
in
Abnormalities
/ Adipose tissue
/ Adult
/ Age
/ Aged
/ Algorithms
/ Analysis
/ Angina pectoris
/ Biomarkers
/ Body mass index
/ Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms
/ Cholesterol
/ Classification
/ Congestive heart failure
/ Coronary artery disease
/ Demographic aspects
/ Demographics
/ Diabetes
/ Diagnosis
/ Epidemiology
/ Ethnicity
/ Family income
/ Fat metabolism
/ Female
/ Health aspects
/ Health Informatics
/ Heart attacks
/ Heart diseases
/ Heart failure
/ Heart Failure - epidemiology
/ Heart Failure - metabolism
/ High density lipoprotein
/ Humans
/ Hypertension
/ Information Systems and Communication Service
/ Insulin resistance
/ Intra-Abdominal Fat - metabolism
/ Learning algorithms
/ Machine Learning
/ Male
/ Management of Computing and Information Systems
/ Marital status
/ Medicine
/ Medicine & Public Health
/ Metabolism
/ METS-VF
/ Middle Aged
/ Missing data
/ Multivariate analysis
/ NHANES
/ Nutrition Surveys
/ Obesity
/ Performance evaluation
/ Regression analysis
/ Risk factors
/ Secondary schools
/ SHAP
/ Socioeconomic factors
/ United States - epidemiology
/ Variables
2025
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Nonlinear association between visceral fat metabolism score and heart failure: insights from LightGBM modeling and SHAP-Driven feature interpretation in NHANES
by
Cheng, Ningyi
, Chen, Liangwan
, Chen, Yukun
, Jin, Lei
in
Abnormalities
/ Adipose tissue
/ Adult
/ Age
/ Aged
/ Algorithms
/ Analysis
/ Angina pectoris
/ Biomarkers
/ Body mass index
/ Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms
/ Cholesterol
/ Classification
/ Congestive heart failure
/ Coronary artery disease
/ Demographic aspects
/ Demographics
/ Diabetes
/ Diagnosis
/ Epidemiology
/ Ethnicity
/ Family income
/ Fat metabolism
/ Female
/ Health aspects
/ Health Informatics
/ Heart attacks
/ Heart diseases
/ Heart failure
/ Heart Failure - epidemiology
/ Heart Failure - metabolism
/ High density lipoprotein
/ Humans
/ Hypertension
/ Information Systems and Communication Service
/ Insulin resistance
/ Intra-Abdominal Fat - metabolism
/ Learning algorithms
/ Machine Learning
/ Male
/ Management of Computing and Information Systems
/ Marital status
/ Medicine
/ Medicine & Public Health
/ Metabolism
/ METS-VF
/ Middle Aged
/ Missing data
/ Multivariate analysis
/ NHANES
/ Nutrition Surveys
/ Obesity
/ Performance evaluation
/ Regression analysis
/ Risk factors
/ Secondary schools
/ SHAP
/ Socioeconomic factors
/ United States - epidemiology
/ Variables
2025
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Nonlinear association between visceral fat metabolism score and heart failure: insights from LightGBM modeling and SHAP-Driven feature interpretation in NHANES
by
Cheng, Ningyi
, Chen, Liangwan
, Chen, Yukun
, Jin, Lei
in
Abnormalities
/ Adipose tissue
/ Adult
/ Age
/ Aged
/ Algorithms
/ Analysis
/ Angina pectoris
/ Biomarkers
/ Body mass index
/ Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms
/ Cholesterol
/ Classification
/ Congestive heart failure
/ Coronary artery disease
/ Demographic aspects
/ Demographics
/ Diabetes
/ Diagnosis
/ Epidemiology
/ Ethnicity
/ Family income
/ Fat metabolism
/ Female
/ Health aspects
/ Health Informatics
/ Heart attacks
/ Heart diseases
/ Heart failure
/ Heart Failure - epidemiology
/ Heart Failure - metabolism
/ High density lipoprotein
/ Humans
/ Hypertension
/ Information Systems and Communication Service
/ Insulin resistance
/ Intra-Abdominal Fat - metabolism
/ Learning algorithms
/ Machine Learning
/ Male
/ Management of Computing and Information Systems
/ Marital status
/ Medicine
/ Medicine & Public Health
/ Metabolism
/ METS-VF
/ Middle Aged
/ Missing data
/ Multivariate analysis
/ NHANES
/ Nutrition Surveys
/ Obesity
/ Performance evaluation
/ Regression analysis
/ Risk factors
/ Secondary schools
/ SHAP
/ Socioeconomic factors
/ United States - epidemiology
/ Variables
2025
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Nonlinear association between visceral fat metabolism score and heart failure: insights from LightGBM modeling and SHAP-Driven feature interpretation in NHANES
Journal Article
Nonlinear association between visceral fat metabolism score and heart failure: insights from LightGBM modeling and SHAP-Driven feature interpretation in NHANES
2025
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Overview
Objective
Using 2005–2018 NHANES data, this study examined the association between the visceral fat metabolism score (METS-VF) and heart failure (HF) prevalence in U.S. adults, leveraging machine learning (LightGBM/XGBoost) and SHAP for classfication performance evaluation and feature interpretation.
Methods
After excluding missing data, 30,704 participants were analyzed via survey-weighted statistics, restricted cubic splines (RCS), stratified analyses, and multivariate logistic regression. Ensemble models were compared for HF classification, with SHAP quantifying feature importance.
Results
HF patients exhibited higher METS-VF (7.35 ± 0.53 vs. 6.79 ± 0.72,
P
< 0.001) and worse cardiometabolic profiles. Multivariate adjustment revealed a 2.249-fold increased HF prevalence per 1-unit METS-VF increase (95% CI: 1.503–3.366,
P
< 0.001), with a nonlinear threshold effect (inflection point = 7.151; OR = 3.321, 95% CI: 3.464–8.494 for METS-VF ≥ 7.151). Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) amplified the association (OR = 5.857). LightGBM outperformed logistic regression in classification (AUC = 0.964 vs. 0.907), with SHAP identifying METS-VF as the top contributor (importance weight = 18.6%), surpassing hypertension (10.8%) and coronary artery disease (11.7%). Correlations validated METS-VF as a composite index of visceral adiposity and metabolic dysfunction (waist circumference
r
= 0.43, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol
r
= − 0.38, all
P
< 0.001).
Conclusion
METS-VF is independently and nonlinearly associated with HF prevalence, particularly in obese individuals. Machine learning enhances predictive accuracy by capturing complex interactions, while SHAP-based interpretability establishes METS-VF as a key biomarker integrating metabolic-adipose abnormalities, offering a novel target for personalized HF prevention.
Publisher
BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,Springer Nature B.V,BMC
Subject
/ Adult
/ Age
/ Aged
/ Analysis
/ Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms
/ Diabetes
/ Female
/ Heart Failure - epidemiology
/ Humans
/ Information Systems and Communication Service
/ Intra-Abdominal Fat - metabolism
/ Male
/ Management of Computing and Information Systems
/ Medicine
/ METS-VF
/ NHANES
/ Obesity
/ SHAP
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