Journal Article

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

Caicedo, Edgar-Yaset, Rueda, Amanecer, Cucunubá, Zulma M., Mendez, Yardany, Charniga, Kelly, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Hamlet, Arran, Carrera, Jean-Paul

2021

Overview

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus that is endemic to tropical forests in Central and South America, particularly within the Amazon basin. In recent years, concern has increased regarding MAYV’s ability to invade urban areas and cause epidemics across the region. We conducted a systematic literature review to characterise the evolutionary history of MAYV, its transmission potential, and exposure patterns to the virus. We analysed data from the literature on MAYV infection to produce estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the generation time and the basic reproduction number, R 0 . We also estimated the force-of-infection (FOI) in epidemic and endemic settings. Seventy-six publications met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of MAYV infection in humans, animals, or vectors was reported in 14 Latin American countries. Nine countries reported evidence of acute infection in humans confirmed by viral isolation or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). We identified at least five MAYV outbreaks. Seroprevalence from population based cross-sectional studies ranged from 21% to 72%. The estimated mean generation time of MAYV was 15.2 days (95% CrI: 11.7–19.8) with a standard deviation of 6.3 days (95% CrI: 4.2–9.5). The per-capita risk of MAYV infection (FOI) ranged between 0.01 and 0.05 per year. The mean R 0 estimates ranged between 2.1 and 2.9 in the Amazon basin areas and between 1.1 and 1.3 in the regions outside of the Amazon basin. Although MAYV has been identified in urban vectors, there is not yet evidence of sustained urban transmission. MAYV’s enzootic cycle could become established in forested areas within cities similar to yellow fever virus.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Age / Alphavirus - classification / Alphavirus - genetics / Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology / Alphavirus Infections - virology / Antibodies / Arbovirus diseases / Biological Evolution / Biology and Life Sciences / Central America / Chikungunya virus / Countries / Cross-sectional studies / Dengue fever / Disease / Disease Outbreaks / DNA / Endemic diseases / Epidemics / Epidemiology / Estimates / Geography / Health risks / Health surveillance / Hospitals / Humans / Identification / Infections / Literature reviews / Medicine and Health Sciences / Models, Biological / Mortality / Mosquitoes / Nucleotide sequence / open climate campaign / Outbreaks / Parameter estimation / PCR / People and places / Pest outbreaks / Phylogenetics / Polymerase chain reaction / Population studies / Public health / Reverse transcription / Risk factors / River basins / Serology / Software / South America / Statistics / Systematic review / Transcription / Transmission / Tropical climate / Tropical diseases / Tropical forests / Urban areas / Vaccines / Vector-borne diseases / Vectors / Viruses