Journal Article

Machine learning-based in-hospital mortality prediction of HIV/AIDS patients with Talaromyces marneffei infection in Guangxi, China

Chen, Rongfeng, Meng, Sirun, Li, Yueqi, Jiang, Junjun, Liao, Yanyan, Qin, Yingmei, Xie, Zhiman, Lin, Jianyan, Shi, Minjuan, Qin, Yaqin, Yuan, Zongxiang, Liang, Hao, Wei, Wudi, Liang, Bingyu, Huang, Jiegang, Chen, Xiaoyu, Ye, Li

2022

Overview

Talaromycosis is a serious regional disease endemic in Southeast Asia. In China, Talaromyces marneffei (T. marneffei) infections is mainly concentrated in the southern region, especially in Guangxi, and cause considerable in-hospital mortality in HIV-infected individuals. Currently, the factors that influence in-hospital death of HIV/AIDS patients with T. marneffei infection are not completely clear. Existing machine learning techniques can be used to develop a predictive model to identify relevant prognostic factors to predict death and appears to be essential to reducing in-hospital mortality. We prospectively enrolled HIV/AIDS patients with talaromycosis in the Fourth People's Hospital of Nanning, Guangxi, from January 2012 to June 2019. Clinical features were selected and used to train four different machine learning models (logistic regression, XGBoost, KNN, and SVM) to predict the treatment outcome of hospitalized patients, and 30% internal validation was used to evaluate the performance of models. Machine learning model performance was assessed according to a range of learning metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) tool was used to explain the model. A total of 1927 HIV/AIDS patients with T. marneffei infection were included. The average in-hospital mortality rate was 13.3% (256/1927) from 2012 to 2019. The most common complications/coinfections were pneumonia (68.9%), followed by oral candida (47.5%), and tuberculosis (40.6%). Deceased patients showed higher CD4/CD8 ratios, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, creatinine levels, urea levels, uric acid (UA) levels, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, total bilirubin levels, creatine kinase levels, white blood-cell counts (WBC) counts, neutrophil counts, procaicltonin levels and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and lower CD3+ T-cell count, CD8+ T-cell count, and lymphocyte counts, platelet (PLT), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), hemoglobin (Hb) levels than those of surviving patients. The predictive XGBoost model exhibited 0.71 sensitivity, 0.99 specificity, and 0.97 AUC in the training dataset, and our outcome prediction model provided robust discrimination in the testing dataset, showing an AUC of 0.90 with 0.69 sensitivity and 0.96 specificity. The other three models were ruled out due to poor performance. Septic shock and respiratory failure were the most important predictive features, followed by uric acid, urea, platelets, and the AST/ALT ratios. The XGBoost machine learning model is a good predictor in the hospitalization outcome of HIV/AIDS patients with T. marneffei infection. The model may have potential application in mortality prediction and high-risk factor identification in the talaromycosis population.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome / Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Additives / AIDS / Aspartate aminotransferase / Bacterial diseases / Bilirubin / Biology and Life Sciences / C-reactive protein / Care and treatment / CD3 antigen / CD4 antigen / CD8 antigen / China - epidemiology / Cholesterol / Comorbidity / Complications / Computer and Information Sciences / Creatine / Creatine kinase / Creatinine / Datasets / Diagnosis / Health aspects / Hemoglobin / HIV / HIV patients / Hospital Mortality / Human immunodeficiency virus / Humans / Infections / Infectious diseases / Kinases / L-Lactate dehydrogenase / Lactate dehydrogenase / Lactic acid / Learning algorithms / Leukocytes (neutrophilic) / Levels / Lipoproteins / Lymphocytes / Lymphocytes T / Machine Learning / Measurement / Medicine and Health Sciences / Methods / Mortality / Mycoses / Patients / Performance evaluation / Physical Sciences / Platelets / Prediction models / Public health / Ratios / Regression analysis / Research and Analysis Methods / Respiratory failure / Retrospective Studies / Risk analysis / Risk factors / Sensitivity / Septic shock / Social Sciences / Specificity / Survival / Talaromyces / Tropical diseases / Tuberculosis / Urea / Ureas / Uric Acid