Journal Article

Anticipating Critical Transitions

Lenton, Timothy M., Brock, William, Carpenter, Stephen R., Vandermeer, John, Scheffer, Marten, Bascompte, Jordi, Levin, Simon A., van Nes, Egbert H., Dakos, Vasilis, van de Koppel, Johan, van de Leemput, Ingrid A., Pascual, Mercedes

2012

Overview

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science,The American Association for the Advancement of Science,American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
• Subject: Animal and plant ecology / Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Animals / Autocorrelation / Biological and medical sciences / catastrophic shifts / Climate / Climate tipping point / Collapse / Complex systems / Connectivity / Conservation biology / coordinated biological motion / critical slowing-down / early-warning signals / Ecological economics / Ecological sustainability / Ecology / Ecosystems / Environmental Sciences / Finance / Forecasting / Fragility / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / General aspects / Global economy / Humans / Marine ecology / Networks / nonequilibrium phase-transitions / Opportunities / Poverty / regime shifts / resilience / REVIEW / risk / Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data / Synecology / systems / tipping-point / Warning