Journal Article

A novel nomogram model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type A aortic dissection after surgery

Fan, Rui, Jiang, Hongwei, Liu, Renjie, Chen, Xin, Huang, Fuhua, Zhou, Yifei

2024

Overview

Background Acute type A aortic dissection is a dangerous disease that threatens public health. In recent years, with the progress of medical technology, the mortality rate of patients after surgery has been gradually reduced, leading that previous prediction models may not be suitable for nowadays. Therefore, the present study aims to find new independent risk factors for predicting in-hospital mortality and construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods: The clinical data of 341 consecutive patients in our center from 2019 to 2023 were collected, and they were divided into two groups according to the death during hospitalization. The independent risk factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram was constructed and verified based on these factors. Results: age, preoperative lower limb ischemia, preoperative activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) , preoperative platelet count, Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time and postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) independently predicted in-hospital mortality of patients with acute type A aortic dissection after surgery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the nomogram was 0.844. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis verified that the model had good quality. Conclusion: The new nomogram model has a good ability to predict the in-hospital mortality of patients with acute type A aortic dissection after surgery.

• Publisher: BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,Springer Nature B.V,BMC
• Subject: Accuracy / Acute Disease / Acute type a aortic dissection / Age / Aged / Analysis / Aorta / Aortic Aneurysm - mortality / Aortic Aneurysm - surgery / Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic - mortality / Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic - surgery / Aortic dissection / Aortic Dissection - mortality / Aortic Dissection - surgery / Blood / Blood platelets / Bypass / Calibration / Cardiac Surgery / Cardiovascular disease / Chronic illnesses / Clinical outcomes / Complications and side effects / Coronary artery bypass / Coronary vessels / Dissecting aneurysm / Dissection / Female / Heart surgery / Hospital Mortality / Hospitals / Humans / Inflammation / Injury analysis / Ischemia / Male / Medical examination / Medical research / Medicine / Medicine & Public Health / Medicine, Experimental / Middle Aged / Mortality / Nomogram / Nomograms / Patient outcomes / Patients / Postoperative Complications - mortality / Prediction models / Predictions / Prognosis / Public health / Regression analysis / Retrospective Studies / Risk analysis / Risk Assessment - methods / Risk factor analysis / Risk Factors / ROC Curve / Surgery / Surgical techniques / Taiwan / Thoracic Surgery / Thromboplastin / Variables