Journal Article

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Balkhi, Laila, Tian, Fuqiang, Mård, Johanna, Wendt, Doris E., François, Didier, Grillakis, Manolis, Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto, Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Frappart, Frédéric, Bradley, Chris, Sharma, Sanjib, Schröter, Kai, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Stoelzle, Michael, Erfurt, Mathilde, Nguyen, Hong Quan, Capewell, Lucinda, Mobini, Shifteh, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Coxon, Gemma, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Couasnon, Anaïs, Agafonova, Svetlana, Ionita, Monica, Stahl, Kerstin, Kharlamov, Maxim, Tang, Qiuhong, Tovar, Carolina, Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J., Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Budiyono, Yus, Blöschl, Günter, Ward, Philip J., Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Sörensen, Johanna, Buytaert, Wouter, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, de Ruiter, Marleen C., Delus, Claire, Kieboom, Natalie, Savelli, Elisa, Steinhausen, Max, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Esposito, Giuseppe, Razavi, Saman, Guzmán, Diego A., Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Wagener, Thorsten, Carlson, Hayley, Riegel, Jannik, Kreibich, Heidi, Frolova, Natalia, Lavado-Casimiro,

2022

Overview

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1 , 2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4 , 5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 . Unprecedented floods and droughts bring new challenges for risk reduction, as is clear from this analysis of the drivers of changing impacts in many cases worldwide, with implications for efficient governance and investment in integrated management.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: 704/242 / 704/4111 / Civil Engineering / Climate Change - statistics & numerical data / Climatology / Cultural heritage / Cultural resources / Datasets / Datasets as Topic / Disaster management / Disaster risk / Disasters / Disruption / Drought / Droughts - prevention & control / Droughts - statistics & numerical data / Earth Sciences / Economics / Emergency preparedness / Engineering and Technology / Environmental degradation / Environmental factors / Environmental risk / Environmental Sciences / Exposure / Extreme Weather / Flood damage / Flood management / Floods / Floods - prevention & control / Floods - statistics & numerical data / Geography / Global Changes / Human influences / Humanities and Social Sciences / Humans / Hydrology / Impact damage / Infrastructure / Internationality / Mean temperatures / multidisciplinary / Property damage / Risk management / Risk Management - methods / Risk Management - statistics & numerical data / Risk Management - trends / Risk reduction / Samhällsbyggnadsteknik / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Sciences of the Universe / Social interactions / Teknik / Temperature rise / Tourism / Vattenteknik / Water Engineering