Journal Article

Risk factors for recurrent tuberculosis after successful treatment in a high burden setting: a cohort study

Wilson, Douglas, Cudahy, Patrick George Tobias, Cohen, Ted

2020

Overview

Background People successfully completing treatment for tuberculosis remain at elevated risk for recurrent disease, either from relapse or reinfection. Identifying risk factors for recurrent tuberculosis may help target post-tuberculosis screening and care. Methods We enrolled 500 patients with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa and collected baseline data on demographics, clinical presentation and sputum mycobacterial cultures for 24-loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing. We used routinely-collected administrative data to identify recurrent episodes of tuberculosis occurring over a median of six years after successful treatment completion. Results Of 500 patients initially enrolled, 333 (79%) successfully completed treatment for tuberculosis. During the follow-up period 35 patients with successful treatment (11%) experienced a bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis recurrence. In our Cox proportional hazards model, a 3+ AFB sputum smear grade was significantly associated with recurrent tuberculosis with a hazard ratio of 3.33 (95% CI 1.44–7.7). The presence of polyclonal M. tuberculosis infection at baseline had a hazard ratio for recurrence of 1.96 (95% CI 0.86–4.48). Conclusion Our results indicate that AFB smear grade is independently associated with tuberculosis recurrence after successful treatment for an initial episode while the association between polyclonal M. tuberculosis infection and increased risk of recurrence appears possible.

• Publisher: BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,Springer Nature B.V,BMC
• Subject: Adult / Age / Air bases / Antitubercular Agents - therapeutic use / Clinical outcomes / Cohort analysis / Demography / Drug therapy / Enrollments / Female / Follow-Up Studies / Fuzzy match / Genotype / Health services / HIV / Human immunodeficiency virus / Humans / Infections / Infectious Diseases / Internal Medicine / Laboratories / Male / Medical Microbiology / Medicine / Medicine & Public Health / Middle Aged / Minisatellite Repeats - genetics / Mixed-infection / Mycobacterium tuberculosis - genetics / Parasitology / Patients / Recurrence / Recurrence (Disease) / Reinfection / Relapse / Research Article / Risk analysis / Risk Factors / South Africa / South Africa - epidemiology / Sputum / Sputum - microbiology / Statistical models / Treatment Outcome / Tropical Medicine / Tuberculosis / Tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases / Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - diagnosis / Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - drug therapy / Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - epidemiology / Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - microbiology / Young Adult