Journal Article

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Kram, Tom, Weyant, John P., Riahi, Keywan, Wilbanks, Thomas J., Moss, Richard H., Rose, Steven K., Carter, Timothy R., Stouffer, Ronald J., Emori, Seita, Smith, Steven J., Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Mitchell, John F. B., Manning, Martin R., Kainuma, Mikiko, Hibbard, Kathy A., Thomson, Allison M., Meehl, Gerald A., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Edmonds, Jae A.

2010

Overview

Setting the scenes Climatologists use model-based 'scenarios' to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. As Richard Moss and colleagues explain in a Perspectives review, climate change researchers have now established a new coordinated parallel process that integrates the tasks of developing scenarios, making projections and evaluating their impact. These 'next generation' scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation. Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: 704/106/694 / 704/844/843 / 706/689/159 / Carbon dioxide / Climate change / Climate change mitigation / Climate change research / Climate system / Climatic changes / Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change / Developing countries / Earth, ocean, space / Ecology - trends / Emissions (Pollution) / Environmental associations / Environmental conditions / Environmental economics / Exact sciences and technology / External geophysics / Futures / Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models / Global Warming - prevention & control / Global Warming - statistics & numerical data / Human Activities / Humanities and Social Sciences / LDCs / Meteorology / multidisciplinary / perspective / R&D / Research & development / Risk Assessment / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Technological change / Vehicle Emissions