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Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

by Bai, Yuan , Lau, Eric H.Y. , Holme, Petter , Galvani, Alison P. , Du, Zhanwei , Krug, Robert M. , Meyers, Lauren Ancel , Wang, Lin , Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai , Cowling, Benjamin J.

in Age / Antiretroviral drugs / Antiviral agents / Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use / Antiviral drugs / Asymptomatic / Clinical trials / coronavirus disease / Costs / COVID-19 / COVID-19 vaccines / Disease transmission / Drug Combinations / Evaluation / Fatalities / Health aspects / Health care expenditures / Hospitalization / Humans / Infections / Influenza / Lactams / Leucine / Medical care, Cost of / Nitriles / Patient outcomes / Patients / Paxlovid / Pharmaceutical industry / Proline / Public Health / Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States / Remifentanil / Ritonavir / SARS-CoV-2 / Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 / Simulation / United States - epidemiology / Viruses / Willingness to pay

2024

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Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

by Bai, Yuan , Lau, Eric H.Y. , Holme, Petter , Galvani, Alison P. , Du, Zhanwei , Krug, Robert M. , Meyers, Lauren Ancel , Wang, Lin , Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai , Cowling, Benjamin J.

2024

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Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

by Bai, Yuan , Lau, Eric H.Y. , Holme, Petter , Galvani, Alison P. , Du, Zhanwei , Krug, Robert M. , Meyers, Lauren Ancel , Wang, Lin , Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai , Cowling, Benjamin J.

2024

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Journal Article

Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Bai, Yuan,

Lau, Eric H.Y.,

Holme, Petter,

Galvani, Alison P.,

Du, Zhanwei,

Krug, Robert M.,

Meyers, Lauren Ancel,

Wang, Lin,

Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai,

Cowling, Benjamin J.

2024

Overview

We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03-0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62-$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36-1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49-$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

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Publisher

U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Subject

Age

/ Antiretroviral drugs

/ Antiviral agents

/ Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use

/ Antiviral drugs

/ Asymptomatic

/ Clinical trials