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Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks
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Journal Article
Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks
2004
Overview
Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions
1
or
ad hoc
models for the contact process
2
,
3
,
4
. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like
5
graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free
6
, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing,Nature Publishing Group
Subject
/ Biological and medical sciences
/ Computerized, statistical medical data processing and models in biomedicine
/ Control
/ Disease
/ Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
/ Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
/ Exact sciences and technology
/ Graphs
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Humans
/ Land use
/ letter
/ Methods
/ Science
/ Sciences and techniques of general use
/ Smallpox - prevention & control
/ Vaccines
