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The 2018 Nigerian Lassa fever season saw the largest ever recorded upsurge of cases, raising concerns over the emergence of a strain with increased transmission rate. To understand the molecular epidemiology of this upsurge, we performed, for the first time at the epicenter of an unfolding outbreak, metagenomic nanopore sequencing directly from patient samples, an approach dictated by the highly variable genome of the target pathogen. Genomic data and phylogenetic reconstructions were communicated immediately to Nigerian authorities and the World Health Organization to inform the public health response. Real-time analysis of 36 genomes and subsequent confirmation using all 120 samples sequenced in the country of origin revealed extensive diversity and phylogenetic intermingling with strains from previous years, suggesting independent zoonotic transmission events and thus allaying concerns of an emergent strain or extensive human-to-human transmission.

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease that is widespread in West Africa and involves animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission. Animal-to-human transmission occurs upon exposure to rodent excreta and secretions, i.e. urine and saliva, and human-to-human transmission occurs via the bodily fluids of an infected person. To elucidate the seasonal drivers of LF epidemics, we employed a mathematical model to analyse the datasets of human infection, rodent population dynamics and climatological variations and capture the underlying transmission dynamics. The surveillance-based incidence data of human cases in Nigeria were explored, and moreover, a mathematical model was used for describing the transmission dynamics of LF in rodent populations. While quantifying the case fatality risk and the rate of exposure of humans to animals, we explicitly estimated the corresponding contact rate of humans with infected rodents, accounting for the seasonal population dynamics of rodents. Our findings reveal that seasonal migratory dynamics of rodents play a key role in regulating the cyclical pattern of LF epidemics. The estimated timing of high exposure of humans to animals coincides with the time shortly after the start of the dry season and can be associated with the breeding season of rodents in Nigeria. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

An increase in Lassa fever cases was identified in Nigeria this year. In this analysis of the infecting viruses, the predominant mode of transmission appeared to be multiple insertions from local rodent populations rather than sustained person-to-person spread.

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host ( Mastomys natalensis ) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning. Lassa Fever is a rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that is a public health problem in West Africa. Here, the authors develop a spatiotemporal model of the socioecological drivers of disease using surveillance data from Nigeria, and find evidence of climate sensitivity.

Lassa fever (LF), caused by the Lassa virus and transmitted primarily by Mastomys natalensis rodents, is a severe hemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa, particularly Nigeria, with significant morbidity and mortality rates. This study develops dynamic models for LF, incorporating crucial but often overlooked factors such as vertical transmission (i.e., transmission from parents to their offsprings) in rodents, surface contamination, and asymptomatic human carriers. The persistence of the disease is shown analytically. Using data from Nigeria to train the models, the impact of various control and mitigation measures is assessed. The results of the study reveal that asymptomatic individuals are key drivers of LF and that including additional LF virus transmission pathways, e.g., vertical transmission and environmental contamination, increases the estimated reproduction number threefold compared to previous studies. Models incorporating rodent dynamics show the highest disease prevalence, highlighting the critical role of rodent control. Specifically, effective interventions using only rodent control measures require maintaining rodent populations below a specific threshold. In addition, a multifaceted approach, combining antiviral treatment, environmental disinfection, and personal protective equipment, significantly enhances disease control, while the introduction of a competitor rodent species can drastically reduce human and rodent infections. Ultimately, the study underscores the need for integrated, multifaceted strategies, including targeting rodents, asymptomatic cases, and comprehensive treatment and disinfection protocols, for effective LF management.

Background Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020. Methods Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7. Results A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in. Conclusion There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

The black rat ( Rattus rattus ) is a globally invasive species that has been widely introduced across Africa. Within its invasive range in West Africa, R. rattus may compete with the native rodent Mastomys natalensis , the primary reservoir host of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that kills thousands annually. Here, we use rodent trapping data from Sierra Leone and Guinea to show that R. rattus presence reduces M. natalensis density within the human dwellings where Lassa virus exposure is most likely to occur. Further, we integrate infection data from M. natalensis to demonstrate that Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk is lower at sites with R. rattus . While non-native species can have numerous negative effects on ecosystems, our results suggest that R. rattus invasion has the indirect benefit of decreasing zoonotic spillover of an endemic pathogen, with important implications for invasive species control across West Africa. Mastomys natalensis is a rodent species native to West Africa that is the primary reservoir host for Lassa virus. Here, the authors investigate whether the invasive rodent Rattus rattus decreases M. natalensis density and could therefore indirectly decrease zoonotic transmission of Lassa virus to humans.

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a ‘3P’ approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a ‘One Health’ agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the ‘black box’ of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’.

This study aims to formulate a mathematical framework to examine how the Lassa virus spreads in humans of opposite genders. The stability of the model is analyzed at an equilibrium point in the absence of the Lassa fever. The model’s effectiveness is evaluated using real-life data, and all the parameters needed to determine the basic reproduction number are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is performed to pinpoint the crucial parameters significantly influencing the spread of the infection. The interaction between threshold parameters and the basic reproduction number is simulated. Control theory is employed to devise and evaluate strategies, such as awareness campaigns, advocating condom usage, and deploying rodenticides to reduce the possibility of virus transmission efficiently.

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever caused by an arenavirus. The disease is endemic in West African countries, including Guinea. The rodents Mastomys natalensis and Mastomys erythroleucus have been identified as Lassa virus reservoirs in Guinea. In the absence of a vaccine, rodent control and human behavioural changes are the only options to prevent Lassa fever in highly endemic areas. We performed a 4 year intervention based on chemical rodent control, utilizing anticoagulant rodenticides in 3 villages and evaluating the rodent abundance before and after treatment. Three additional villages were investigated as controls. Analyses to assess the effectiveness of the intervention, bait consumption and rodent dynamics were performed. Anthropological investigations accompanied the intervention to integrate local understandings of human-rodent cohabitation and rodent control intervention. Patterns of bait consumption showed a peak at days 5-7 and no consumption at days 28-30. There was no difference between Bromadiolone and Difenacoum bait consumption. The main rodent species found in the houses was M. natalensis. The abundance of M. natalensis, as measured by the trapping success, varied between 3.6 and 16.7% before treatment and decreased significantly to 1-2% after treatment. Individuals in treated villages welcomed the intervention and trapping because mice are generally regarded as a nuisance. Immediate benefits from controlling rodents included protection of food and belongings. Before the intervention, local awareness of Lassa fever was non-existent. Despite their appreciation for the intervention, local individuals noted its limits and the need for complementary actions. Our results demonstrate that chemical treatment provides an effective tool to control local rodent populations and can serve as part of an effective, holistic approach combining rodent trapping, use of local rodenticides, environmental hygiene, house repairs and rodent-proof storage. These actions should be developed in collaboration with local stakeholders and communities.