Journal Article

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders

Hanson, R. Karl, Helmus, Leslie, Thornton, David

2010

Overview

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.

• Publisher: Springer,Springer Science+Business Media, LLC,Springer US,American Psychological Law Society
• Subject: Accuracy / Adult / Behavioral Science and Psychology / Child molestation / Community and Environmental Psychology / Criminal Offenders / Criminals / Criminology and Criminal Justice / Datasets / Denmark / Habitual offenders / Human / Humans / Law and Psychology / Logistic regression / Male / Offenders / Original Article / Personality and Social Psychology / Prediction / Probability / Prospective Studies / Psychology / Public safety / Rapists / Recidivism / Recidivism prediction / Recurrence / Regression analysis / Risk / Risk analysis / Risk assessment / Risk Factors / ROC Curve / Sex crimes / Sex Offenders / Sex Offenses / Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data / Sexual Offenders / Sexual violence / Studies / Supervision / Surveys and Questionnaires / Test Validity