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Readiness Theory and the Northern Ireland Conflict
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Journal Article
Readiness Theory and the Northern Ireland Conflict
2007
Overview
After 20 years of heavy fighting in Northern Ireland, a peace process started in 1988. The fighting went on, with some interruptions, for another 9 years; but during this time there was a long series o;f back-channel communications and conciliatory signals that led to a cease-fire, negotiations, and a peace settlement. The dynamics of this peace process are analyzed by means of the author's readiness theory, which attributes the process to (a) Irish Republican Army and British discouragement about the likelihood of a military victory, (b) pressure from allies of both these parties, (c) growing optimism about the success of negotiation, and (d) the emergence of a broad central coalition that embraced most of the political groups in Northern Ireland.
