eBook

A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem

Gary King

2013

Overview

This book provides a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over seventy-five years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behavior from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy, and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique--and reliable--solution to this venerable problem. King begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. He then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. He then presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer. The method works in practice. King's solution to the ecological inference problem will enable empirical researchers to investigate substantive questions that have heretofore proved unanswerable, and move forward fields of inquiry in which progress has been stifled by this problem.

• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Subject: Accounting identity / Accuracy and precision / Addition / Aggregate data / Aggregation problem / Approximation / Bayesian / Calculation / Cartesian coordinate system / Coefficient / Combination / Computation / Conditional probability distribution / Conditional variance / Confidence interval / Contingency table / Contour line / Correlation and dependence / Covariate / Ecological regression / Ecology / Equation / Error term / Estimation / Expected value / Heteroscedasticity / History & Theory / Importance sampling / Inference / Joint probability distribution / Least squares / Likelihood function / Linear function / Linear regression / Multivariate normal distribution / Normal distribution / Notation / Parameter / Parameter (computer programming) / Parametrization / Percentile / Point estimation / Political methodology / POLITICAL SCIENCE / POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory / Posterior probability / Prior probability / Probability / Probability distribution / Proportionality (mathematics) / Qualitative research / Quantity / Regression analysis / Result / Sampling (statistics) / Scientific notation / Special case / Standard deviation / Standard error / Statistic / Statistical methods / Statistics / Tomography / Uncertainty / Unit square / Upper and lower bounds / Variable (computer science) / Variable (mathematics) / Variance / Voter turnout / Voting / Voting age / Weighted arithmetic mean
• ISBN: 1400849209, 9781400849208, 0691012407, 9780691012407, 0691012415, 9780691012414