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Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows
by
Zhang, Xiao
, Feng, Baofei
, Zhang, Yu
, Yan, Fangjia
in
Animal species
/ Annual
/ Annual runoff
/ Aquatic ecosystems
/ Bayesian analysis
/ Ecosystems
/ Energy resources
/ Energy sources
/ Environmental economics
/ Flow duration curves
/ Flow velocity
/ Hydraulics
/ Hydrology
/ Hypotheses
/ Hypothesis testing
/ Low flow
/ Methods
/ Probability
/ Probability distribution
/ Probability theory
/ River ecology
/ Rivers
/ Statistical inference
/ Water demand
/ Water resources
/ Water resources development
/ Water shortages
2024
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Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows
by
Zhang, Xiao
, Feng, Baofei
, Zhang, Yu
, Yan, Fangjia
in
Animal species
/ Annual
/ Annual runoff
/ Aquatic ecosystems
/ Bayesian analysis
/ Ecosystems
/ Energy resources
/ Energy sources
/ Environmental economics
/ Flow duration curves
/ Flow velocity
/ Hydraulics
/ Hydrology
/ Hypotheses
/ Hypothesis testing
/ Low flow
/ Methods
/ Probability
/ Probability distribution
/ Probability theory
/ River ecology
/ Rivers
/ Statistical inference
/ Water demand
/ Water resources
/ Water resources development
/ Water shortages
2024
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Do you wish to request the book?
Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows
by
Zhang, Xiao
, Feng, Baofei
, Zhang, Yu
, Yan, Fangjia
in
Animal species
/ Annual
/ Annual runoff
/ Aquatic ecosystems
/ Bayesian analysis
/ Ecosystems
/ Energy resources
/ Energy sources
/ Environmental economics
/ Flow duration curves
/ Flow velocity
/ Hydraulics
/ Hydrology
/ Hypotheses
/ Hypothesis testing
/ Low flow
/ Methods
/ Probability
/ Probability distribution
/ Probability theory
/ River ecology
/ Rivers
/ Statistical inference
/ Water demand
/ Water resources
/ Water resources development
/ Water shortages
2024
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Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows
Journal Article
Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows
2024
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Overview
Developing scientifically sound ecological flow is crucial for protecting river ecosystems. However, most of the existing hydrological methods for determining ecological flow make it difficult to consider both inter-annual and intra-annual changes in runoff. To compensate for this shortcoming, this paper proposes an innovative ecological flow determination method based on the probability distributions of annual and monthly flows. Marginal distributions of annual and monthly flows are first fitted, and the Copula function is used to create joint probability distributions of annual and monthly flows. Conditional probabilities for different monthly flow sizes under different annual flow conditions are then calculated based on Bayesian inference. The conditional probabilities are combined with the flow–duration curve-–based method to finalize the ecological flow process considering both intra- and inter-annual runoff changes. A case study was conducted in Jinsha River, China. The results show that the total annual ecological water demand of the Jinsha River is 1.50, 1.25, and 1.04 × 1011 m3 under annual flow scenarios of high, medium, and low flows, respectively, which provide a red line for the development of water resources and hydro-energy resources of the Jinsha River, as well as for the better protection of the natural plant and animal species.
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