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Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China
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Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China
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Journal Article
Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China
2021
Overview
Debris flow risk is growing with the current increases in landscape exploitation and extreme precipitation events associated with global warming. Insurance is an efficient approach to cope with disasters. Based on the quantitative assessment, the debris flow hazard was obtained by a dynamic run-out model (FLO-2D), and the pure risk premiums of debris flow disaster were rating in a high-risk region (Anzhou) in Sichuan, China. Simulation results indicated that disastrous debris flows would reoccur every 5 years on average under the contemporary climatic and geological conditions of the study area. The mountain region experienced a wider area affected by debris flows than plains and hills; however, its area affected by low debris flow depth (d < 0.1 m) accounts for a larger proportion (56.69% and 22.60%, respectively). The probability of sub-basins with basin slopes of 5°–10° experiencing serious debris flows was pretty close to the probability of sub-basins with slopes of 25°–35°, which are considered to be susceptible to trigger debris flows. Furthermore, for relatively flat sub-basins (slopes < 25°), the part closer to source was more susceptible to higher flow depth. Risk assessment results showed that the significant spatial difference between the distribution of debris flow risk and hazard largely linked to the distribution of at-risk element (buildings). The pure risk premium of Anzhou was rated as 0.69–25.48‰ depending on the proportion of at-risk buildings to insured buildings, which highlights the need to encourage or require more low-risk and secure buildings to participate in insurance schemes to share the debris flow risk of the entire region.
Publisher
Springer Nature B.V
Subject
