Journal Article

Charting a Transformational Course Toward a Safe and Just Future: The Earth Commission's Contribution

Folke, Carl, Vuuren, Detlef, Marquet, Pablo A., Riahi, Keywan, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Oki, Taikan, Shalin, Anna, Verburg, Peter, Denton, Fatima, Rojas, Maria del Mar, Graells, Georgia, Loriani, Sina, Pereira, Laura, Lenton, Timothy M., Abrams, Jesse F., Ylla‐Català, Raimon C., Lade, Steven J., Broadgate, Wendy J., Xiao, Cunde, Gotangco Gonzales, Charlotte Kendra, Alam, Lubna, Bunn, Stuart E., Diamond, Miriam L., Buxton, Joshua E., Sarkar, Anindita, Armstrong McKay, David I., Su, Bo, Wang, Zhanyun, Stewart‐Koster, Ben, Mukherji, Aditi, Vliet, Luc, Gupta, Joyeeta, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Jacobson, Lisa, Norström, Albert V., Moyo, Qondi, Popp, Alexander, Tharammal, Thejna, Hasan, Syezlin, Ludwig, Cornelia, Bai, Xuemei, Rockström, Johan, Peña, Maria Fernanda, Bala, Govindasamy, Davis, Natalie, Dennis, Donovan P., Boulton, Chris, DeClerck, Fabrice, Zimm, Caroline, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Sumaila, Rashid

2026

Overview

Humans are now operating well outside the planetary conditions under which social and economic development has been possible. A precondition for securing equitable access to this prosperity is to safeguard the stability of the Earth system. The situation is urgent—we need a swift and profound shift in direction—a collective transformation. In response, the Earth Commission has developed a science‐based framework that integrates biophysical limits with justice considerations, aiming to enable human wellbeing for all. The Earth Commission's first assessment showed that multiple safe and just Earth system boundaries have already been transgressed, threatening the resilience of the planet and the well‐being of billions. This paper outlines the vision and scientific strategy for the Earth Commission's second phase (2024–2027), which focuses on advancing this framework and translating it into actionable budgets and exploring transformation pathways toward a safe and just future. Key components include expanding the safe and just boundary assessment to currently under‐assessed Earth system processes (e.g., novel entities and ocean change), integrating justice more deeply into the framework, modeling interactions between boundaries and tipping points, and developing practical approaches to cross‐scale translation and transformation. Special attention is given to the structural inequalities and power dynamics that shape both environmental degradation and our capacity to act. Through coordinated research, interdisciplinary collaboration, and stakeholder engagement, the Earth Commission seeks to provide knowledge to guide collective efforts toward transforming to a safe and just space for both people and the planet. Plain Language Summary People around the world are already feeling the effects of a planet under pressure‐from climate change and biodiversity loss to rising inequality. Scientists are warning that we are pushing Earth's life‐support systems beyond their safe limits, putting both nature and human well‐being at serious risk. In response, the Earth Commission has created a new science‐based framework that brings together environmental limits and fairness. This helps define what a “safe and just” future looks like‐one where the planet remains stable, and the well‐being of all people is promoted. The next phase of work focuses on improving our understanding of under‐explored threats like pollution and novel types of pollution, deepening the role of justice in our analysis, and identifying fair ways to share responsibility for staying within Earth's limits. It also looks at how big changes to systems like energy and food can help move us toward a safe and just future. The goal is to support faster, fairer action that protects both people and the planet. Key Points Human activity has pushed the planet beyond safe and just limits, endangering stability and the well‐being of billions A just and rapid transformation is needed to shift toward a liveable future for both people and the planet The Earth Commission provides a science‐based framework to guide systemic change across scales and sectors

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Anthropocene / Biodiversity / Biogeochemistry / Climate change / Collaboration / Earth / Earth system / Economic development / Emission standards / Environmental degradation / justice / Knowledge management / Science / stability / Tipping point