Journal Article

Enhanced Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Through Multi-Method Data Processing and SFOA-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM

Zhang, Zhiming, Hua, Xiaojun, Su, Yixin, Song, Zida, Ye, Tao, Shao, Yun

2025

Overview

The increasing global demand for renewable energy poses significant challenges to grid stability due to the fluctuation and unpredictability of photovoltaic (PV) power generation. To enhance the accuracy of short-term PV power prediction, this study proposes an innovative integrated model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), optimized using the Starfish Optimization Algorithm (SFOA) and integrated with a multi-method data processing framework. To reduce input feature redundancy and improve prediction accuracy under different conditions, the K-means clustering algorithm is employed to classify past data into three typical weather scenarios. Empirical Mode Decomposition is utilized for multi-scale feature extraction, while Kernel Principal Component Analysis is applied to reduce data redundancy by extracting nonlinear principal components. A hybrid CNN-BiLSTM neural network is then constructed, with its hyperparameters optimized using SFOA to enhance feature extraction and sequence modeling capabilities. The experiments were carried out with historical data from a Chinese PV power station, and the results were compared with other existing prediction models. The results demonstrate that the Root Mean Square Error of PV power generation prediction for three scenarios are 9.8212, 12.4448, and 6.2017, respectively, outperforming all other comparative models.

• Publisher: MDPI AG
• Subject: Accuracy / Adaptability / Algorithms / Alternative energy sources / Clustering / Deep learning / Eigenvalues / Electric power production / Electronic data processing / empirical mode decomposition / Forecasting / kernel principal component analysis / Mathematical optimization / Methods / neural network / Neural networks / Optimization algorithms / Principal components analysis / short-term PV power prediction / Solar energy / Solar power plants / starfish optimization algorithm / Wind power