Journal Article

Exploring Hydrological Variable Interconnections and Enhancing Predictions for Data‐Limited Basins Through Multi‐Task Learning

Zhang, Chi, Ouyang, Wenyu, Gu, Xuezhi, Liu, Xiaoning, Ye, Lei

2025

Overview

Deep learning has shown great promise in hydrological modeling, especially when large sample data sets are used to capture generalizable patterns across basins. However, challenges remain in addressing data scarcity and ensuring model reliability, particularly when key hydrological observations are modeled as individual tasks. In this study, we shift from traditional single‐task learning (STL) to multi‐task learning (MTL) to leverage the interconnections among hydrological variables and potentially improve modeling outcomes in data‐limited settings. Using a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural network with the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐Sample Studies data set, we developed an MTL model to predict streamflow and evapotranspiration across 591 basins. The MTL model exhibited comparable predictions for streamflow and evapotranspiration to STL models, with similar spatiotemporal generalization across varying data sizes. MTL's strength appeared when using LSTM cell state probes to predict the non‐target variable, surface soil moisture (SSM), showing slightly higher correlation coefficients. This highlights MTL's ability to capture intrinsic hydrological rules, enhancing model reliability. Leveraging this ability, we further explored MTL's advantages under two data‐limited scenarios: one with less‐observed SSM data and another with no available streamflow data. In both cases, MTL, supported by another well‐observed variable, outperformed STL models by a notable difference. These findings highlight MTL's potential to address the challenges of hydrological modeling in data‐limited basins. As Earth observation data continues to grow, MTL could become a valuable approach for building more reliable and generalizable hydrological models.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Basins / Correlation coefficient / Correlation coefficients / Datasets / Deep learning / Evapotranspiration / Evapotranspiration models / Hydrologic data / Hydrologic models / Hydrologic observations / Hydrology / Interconnections / Meteorology / Modelling / Moisture content / Neural networks / Reliability / Soil moisture / Soil surfaces / Stream discharge / Stream flow / Streamflow data / Watersheds