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Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches
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Journal Article
Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches
2009
Overview
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
Publisher
Springer US,Springer Nature B.V
