Journal Article

Advancing the Modeling of Future Climate and Innovation Impacts on Perennial Crops to Support Adaptation: A Case Study of California Almonds

Monier, Erwan, Wu, Shuaiqi, Zikalala, Prudentia Gugulethu, Snyder, Richard, Segaran, Mira, Alba, Sequoia, Jarvis‐Shean, Katherine S., Kisekka, Isaya

2025

Overview

Perennial crops are vital to the global food supply, providing valuable nutrition and economic benefits, but are at risk of severe climate damages. Most climate research has focused on major annual crops like cereals and has focused on the overall impact of climate change on yields providing limited actionable knowledge to support adaptation. In this study, we bring together climate scientists, biometeorology specialists, plant scientists, and agricultural engineers to develop a new perennial crop modeling framework that integrates climate modeling, horticulture and agronomy science, and statistical modeling. We apply this framework to California almonds as a case study, because they offer robust data to calibrate and evaluate our model. Our model quantifies the influence of climate in each almond development stage and of innovation on county‐level yields. We simulate future yield changes under a large multi‐model ensemble of high‐resolution climate simulations and innovation scenarios. We find that climate change could lead to yield losses of 17% by 2100 under moderate warming (SSP245) and 49% under high warming (SSP585); however, we also find that sustained innovation gains could more than offset these negative climate impacts. We identify increasing minimum temperatures and humidity during the bloom and pollination period as well as heat stress during the growing period as the main drivers of yield losses. We discuss synergistic strategies to limit the negative impacts of climate change and to ensure continued gains from innovation. This modeling approach could provide valuable insights into climate adaptation strategies for other perennial crops and regions. Plain Language Summary Perennial crops like nuts and fruits provide sizable nutrition and economic benefits to society but face significant risks from climate change. Unlike annual crops like maize and wheat, perennial crops have received little attention in climate impact studies. To address this knowledge gap, we combine expertise from climate science, crop science, and agricultural engineering to advance the modeling of perennial crops and use California almonds as a case study because they contribute 80% of the global almond supply and offer robust data. Our approach represents how environmental conditions in different almond growth stages impact almond yields in different years and counties. Our modeling framework projects 17% yield losses under moderate warming and 49% yield losses under high warming by 2100. Our results also show that continued innovation gains can offset these climate damages. We identify warmer nights and higher humidity during pollination and excessive heat during the growing stage as major threats to future almond yields in California. This research can provide almond growers with insights to adapt to climate change more effectively and to prioritize innovation investments in the future. It also offers a modeling framework that can be adapted to other perennial crops and regions facing similar challenges. Key Points Through interdisciplinary modeling, we project future almond yields and identify detailed climate damages and potential innovation gains Higher minimum temperature and humidity during bloom and higher heat stress during the growth stage explain most of the climate damages Future agronomic innovation and targeted adaptation strategies can offset climate damages and even result in future yield gains

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Adaptation / Agricultural engineering / Agricultural production / Agriculture / Agronomy / Biometeorology / Case studies / Cereals / Climate adaptation / Climate change / Climate models / Crops / Developmental stages / Environmental conditions / Environmental impact / Food / Food supply / Future climates / Harvest / Heat / Heat stress / Heat tolerance / Horticulture / Humidity / Innovations / Minimum temperatures / Modelling / Nutrition / Perennial crops / Phenology / Plant reproduction / Pollination / Precipitation / Scientists / Severe climates / Statistical models / Temperature