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Reassessing the U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility: A replication and extension of Kolk’s (2019) study using comprehensive gender equality measures
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Reassessing the U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility: A replication and extension of Kolk’s (2019) study using comprehensive gender equality measures
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Journal Article
Reassessing the U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility: A replication and extension of Kolk’s (2019) study using comprehensive gender equality measures
2025
Overview
While theories predict that fertility initially declines and subsequently rebounds with rising gender equality, previous empirical studies have produced mixed results, partly due to differences in gender equality measurement and methodological approaches. This study replicates Kolk's (2019) research, which found weak evidence for a U-shaped relationship between public-sphere gender equality and fertility. The study re-evaluates these findings using data covering the period 1950-2003 and incorporating a broader, multidimensional measure of gender equality, the Historical Gender Equality Index. The analysis identifies a conditional U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility, meaning that the expected fertility rebound at high gender equality emerges only when controlling for long-term fertility-decline trends and fertility tempo distortions. The replication provides evidence that the previously identified weak support for a U-shaped relationship may stem from the choice of gender equality indicators. By employing a more comprehensive measure and controlling for period and country fixed effects, this analysis reveals a conditional U-shaped relationship. However, this modest fertility rebound at high gender equality levels is insufficient to reverse the broader, longterm decline in fertility observed across advanced societies.
