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Journal Article
Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
2022
Overview
Future projections of global mean precipitation change (Δ
P
) based on Earth-system models have larger uncertainties than projections of global mean temperature changes (Δ
T
)
1
. Although many observational constraints on Δ
T
have been proposed, constraints on Δ
P
have not been well studied
2
–
5
and are often complicated by the large influence of aerosols on precipitation
4
. Here we show that the upper bound (95th percentile) of Δ
P
(2051–2100 minus 1851–1900, percentage of the 1980–2014 mean) is lowered from 6.2 per cent to 5.2–5.7 per cent (minimum–maximum range of sensitivity analyses) under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Our results come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 ensembles
6
–
8
, in which Δ
P
for 2051–2100 is well correlated with the global mean temperature trends during recent decades after 1980 when global anthropogenic aerosol emissions were nearly constant. Δ
P
is also significantly correlated with the recent past trends in precipitation when we exclude the tropical land areas with few rain-gauge observations. On the basis of these significant correlations and observed trends, the variance of Δ
P
is reduced by 8–30 per cent. The observationally constrained ranges of Δ
P
should provide further reliable information for impact assessments.
Model simulations show that the historical relationship between global temperature and precipitation under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario lowers the projected high end of future precipitation change.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
Subject
