Journal Article

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan

Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh, Wajid, Aftab, Hussain, Jamshad, Habib ur Rahman, Muhammad, Saeed, Umer, Mubeen, Muhammad, Arshad, Muhammad Naveed, Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar, Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum, Bashir, Muhammad Usman, Ahmad, Ashfaq, Awais, Muhammad, Nasim, Wajid

2018

Overview

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop’s yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha −1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

• Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Adaptation / Adaptation, Physiological - physiology / Agricultural industry / Agricultural Irrigation / Agricultural management / Agricultural production / Agronomy / Aquatic Pollution / Aridity / Carbon dioxide / Carbon Dioxide - analysis / Carbon dioxide concentration / Climate Change / Climatic conditions / climatic factors / Computer simulation / Crop growth / crop models / crop yield / Crops / Crops, Agricultural - growth & development / Crops, Agricultural - physiology / Dry matter / Earth and Environmental Science / Ecotoxicology / Environment / Environmental Chemistry / Environmental Health / Environmental impact / Environmental science / Flowering / fruits / Helianthus / Helianthus - growth & development / Helianthus - physiology / Helianthus annuus / High temperature / Irrigation / Irrigation water / Leaf area / Leaf area index / Models, Biological / Moisture / Pakistan / phenology / Plant populations / planting / Research Article / semiarid zones / simulation models / sowing date / Temperature / Temperature effects / Waste Water Technology / Water / Water Management / Water Pollution Control / Water scarcity / water shortages