Journal Article

Artificial intelligence models versus empirical equations for modeling monthly reference evapotranspiration

Kisi, Ozgur, Souag-Gamane, Doudja, Tikhamarine, Yazid, Malik, Anurag

2020

Overview

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) is profoundly crucial in crop modeling, sustainable management, hydrological water simulation, and irrigation scheduling, since it accounts for more than two-thirds of global precipitation losses. Therefore, ET o -based estimation is a major concern in the hydrological cycle. The estimation of ET o can be determined using various methods, including field measurement (the scale of the lysimeter), experimental methods, and mathematical equations. The Food and Agriculture Organization recommended the Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method which was identified as the standard method of ET o estimation. However, this equation requires a large number of measured climatic data (maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) that are not always available on meteorological stations. Over the decade, the artificial intelligence (AI) models have received more attention for estimating ET o on multi-time scales. This research explores the potential of new hybrid AI model, i.e., support vector regression (SVR) integrated with grey wolf optimizer (SVR-GWO) for estimating monthly ET o at Algiers, Tlemcen, and Annaba stations located in the north of Algeria. Five climatic variables namely relative humidity (RH), maximum and minimum air temperatures (T max and T min ), solar radiation (R s ), and wind speed (U s ) were used for model construction and evaluation. The proposed hybrid SVR-GWO model was compared against hybrid SVR-genetic algorithm (SVR-GA), SVR-particle swarm optimizer (SVR-PSO), conventional artificial neural network (ANN), and empirical (Turc, Ritchie, Thornthwaite, and three versions of Valiantzas methods) models by using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), and Willmott index (WI), and through graphical interpretation. Through the results obtained, the performance of the SVR-GWO provides very promising and occasionally competitive results compared to other data-driven and empirical methods at study stations. Thus, the proposed SVR-GWO model with five climatic input variables outperformed the other models (RMSE = 0.0776/0.0613/0.0374 mm, NSE = 0.9953/ 0.9990/0.9995, PCC = 0.9978/0.9995/0.9998 and WI = 0.9988/0.9997/0.9999) for estimating ET o at Algiers, Tlemcen, and Annaba stations, respectively. In conclusion, the results of this research indicate the suitability of the proposed hybrid artificial intelligence model (SVR-GWO) at the study stations. Besides, promising results encourage researchers to transfer and test these models in other locations in the world in future works.

• Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Agricultural management / air / Air temperature / Algeria / algorithms / Aquatic Pollution / Artificial intelligence / Artificial neural networks / Atmospheric models / Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution / Climate change / Climatic data / Computer simulation / Correlation coefficient / Correlation coefficients / Earth and Environmental Science / Ecotoxicology / Empirical equations / Environment / Environmental Chemistry / Environmental Health / Environmental science / equations / Estimation / Evapotranspiration / Experimental methods / Food and Agriculture Organization / Genetic algorithms / Humidity / Hybrid systems / hybrids / Hydrologic cycle / Hydrology / Irrigation scheduling / Irrigation water / lysimeters / Mathematical models / Measurement methods / Neural networks / pollution / Radiation / regression analysis / Relative humidity / Research Article / Research methodology / Root-mean-square errors / Solar radiation / Support vector machines / Sustainability management / Swarm intelligence / Waste Water Technology / Water Management / Water Pollution Control / Weather stations / Wind speed