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Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard
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Journal Article
Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard
2019
Overview
Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (
M
w
> 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering.
Scattered earthquake locations in the same region cannot be explained solely by coseismic Coulomb stress on planar faults. Instead, the authors suggest Coulomb pre-stress to influence earthquake locations. Pre-stress was modelled on strike-variable faults and consists of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
