Journal Article

An epidemiological model for analysing pandemic trends of novel coronavirus transmission with optimal control

Al-Mdallal, Qasem M., Rihan, Fathalla A., Khan, Tahir

2024

Overview

Symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals play a significant role in the transmission dynamics of novel Coronaviruses. By considering the dynamical behaviour of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, this study examines the temporal dynamics and optimal control of Coronavirus disease propagation using an epidemiological model. Biologically and mathematically, the well-posed epidemic problem is examined, as well as the threshold quantity with parameter sensitivity. Model parameters are quantified and their relative impact on the disease is evaluated. Additionally, the steady states are investigated to determine the model's stability and bifurcation. Using the dynamics and parameters sensitivity, we then introduce optimal control strategies for the elimination of the disease. Using real disease data, numerical simulations and model validation are performed to support theoretical findings and show the effects of control strategies.

• Publisher: Taylor & Francis,Taylor & Francis Ltd,Taylor & Francis Group
• Subject: Asymptomatic / backward bifurcation / centre manifold theory / Control theory / Coronaviruses / COVID-19 / COVID-19 - epidemiology / Disease transmission / Epidemic models / Epidemiological model / Epidemiological Models / Epidemiology / Hepatitis / Humans / Immunization / Infections / Infectious diseases / Influenza / Mathematical models / Mathematics / Models, Biological / numerical simulations / optimal control / Pandemics / Pandemics - prevention & control / SARS-CoV-2 / SARS-CoV-2 virus / Seafood / sensitivity / Sensitivity analysis / Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 / steady states / Trends / Viruses