Journal Article

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Andreasen, Viggo, Edmunds, W. John, Lessler, Justin, Lloyd-Smith, James O., Funk, Sebastian, Viboud, Cecile, Heesterbeek, Hans, Dye, Chris, Mollison, Denis, Pellis, Lorenzo, Eames, Ken T. D., Frost, Simon D. W., Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre, Bansal, Shweta, Isham, Valerie, Roberts, Mick G., Metcalf, C. Jessica E., House, Thomas, Klepac, Petra, Pulliam, Juliet R. C., Anderson, Roy M., De Angelis, Daniela

2015

Overview

The spread of infectious diseases can be unpredictable. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance and worrying new viruses, and with ambitious plans for global eradication of polio and the elimination of malaria, the stakes have never been higher. Anticipation and measurement of the multiple factors involved in infectious disease can be greatly assisted by mathematical methods. In particular, modeling techniques can help to compensate for imperfect knowledge, gathered from large populations and under difficult prevailing circumstances. Heesterbeek et al. review the development of mathematical models used in epidemiology and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aaa4339 Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science,The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subject: Animals / Antibiotic resistance / Arthropoda / Basic Reproduction Number / Coinfection / Communicable Disease Control / Communicable Diseases / Communicable Diseases - epidemiology / Communicable Diseases - transmission / Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology / Communicable Diseases, Emerging - transmission / Data collection / Decision making / Disease control / Disease Outbreaks / Dynamics / Ecosystems / Epidemiology / Food webs / Global Health / Health / Health Policy / Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology / Heterogeneity / Human behavior / Humans / Immunology / Infectious diseases / Inferences / Land use / Malaria / Mathematical analysis / Mathematical models / Model testing / Models, Biological / Outbreaks / Pathogens / Population growth / Prevention / Public Health / REVIEW SUMMARY / Risk assessment / Urbanization / Vector-borne diseases / Zoonoses / Zoonoses - epidemiology / Zoonoses - transmission