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Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
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Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
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Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
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Journal Article
Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
2021
Overview
There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2–5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
Subject
/ Adult
/ Child
/ Child Day Care Centers - statistics & numerical data
/ COVID-19
/ Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Humans
/ Schools
/ Schools - statistics & numerical data
/ Science
/ Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
/ Siblings
/ Students
