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The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate
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The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate
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Journal Article
The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate
2024
Overview
Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high‐latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high‐emission scenario over the 21st${21}^{\\text{st}}$ ‐century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high‐latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non‐negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate. Plain Language Summary As the globe continues to warm in the next 100 years, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheets will continue to melt, adding freshwater to the surrounding ocean regions. This process is often poorly (if at all) represented in global climate models used to make projections about future climate change. Here, we simulate the climate response to melting ice sheets in a global climate model by adding freshwater to the model ocean near the edges of ice sheets. We focus our analysis on the impact of this freshwater addition on the future evolution of heat and carbon in the ocean, because both heat and carbon have the potential to feed back on the climate system (less heat/carbon in the ocean means more heat/carbon in the atmosphere and a warmer climate). By the end of the century, we find that the ocean stores less heat and carbon because of the melting ice sheets. We also find that summing the effects from melt on Antarctica and Greenland separately is not equal to the effect of melting both ice sheets simultaneously. Finally, we show that ocean heat and carbon respond differently to the same amount of ice sheet melt. Key Points We disentangle the linear and nonlinear effects of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt on ocean heat content and anthropogenic carbon Future anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean heat content have disparate responses to separate and combined ice sheet melt in polar regions Greenland freshwater is more influential than Antarctic freshwater in driving future changes in anthropogenic carbon and ocean heat content
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc,American Geophysical Union (AGU),John Wiley and Sons Inc,Wiley
Subject
/ Anthropogenic climate changes
/ Arctic and Antarctic oceanography
/ Atmospheric Composition and Structure
/ Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, and Modeling
/ Biogeochemical Kinetics and Reaction Modeling
/ Carbon
/ Climate and Interannual Variability
/ Climate Change and Variability
/ Computer-generated environments
/ Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment
/ Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology
/ Enthalpy
/ Heat
/ Hydrological Cycles and Budgets
/ Ice
/ Land/Atmosphere Interactions
/ Latitude
/ Marine Geology and Geophysics
/ Modeling
/ Ocean influence of Earth rotation
/ Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques
/ Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions
/ Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions
/ Oceanic
/ Oceanography: Biological and Chemical
/ Oceans
/ Risk
/ Salinity
/ Sea Level: Variations and Mean
/ Trends
/ Tundra
