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SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing
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SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing
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Journal Article
SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing
2020
Overview
Objective
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number
R
0
. The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods.
Results
We found an
R
0
of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus.
Publisher
BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,Springer Nature B.V,BMC
Subject
/ Biomedical and Life Sciences
/ Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
/ Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
/ Coronavirus Infections - transmission
/ COVID-19
/ Humans
/ Infection Control - statistics & numerical data
/ Kenya
/ Masks
/ Methods
/ Ordinary differential equations
/ Pandemics - prevention & control
/ Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
/ Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
/ Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
/ Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
/ Travel
/ Viruses
