Journal Article

Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

Leisten, Matthew J, Wegner, Carleigh R, Hondula, David M, Veazey, Lindsay M, Davis, Robert E, Saha, Michael V

2012

Overview

Background High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Methods We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression. Results Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age. Conclusions Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.

• Publisher: BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,Springer Nature B.V,BMC
• Subject: Age Factors / Aged / Apparent temperature / Biometeorology / Climate variability / Climatology / Earth and Environmental Science / Economic factors / Environment / Environmental Health / Extreme weather / Health aspects / Health risks / Heat Stress Disorders - epidemiology / Heat Stress Disorders - etiology / Heat Stress Disorders - mortality / Heat tolerance / Heat waves / Heat-health impacts / High temperature / Hot Temperature - adverse effects / Humans / Humidity / Landsat / Metropolitan areas / Middle Aged / Morbidity / Mortality / Mortality risk / Occupational Medicine/Industrial Medicine / Philadelphia - epidemiology / Population characteristics / Postal codes / Principal Component Analysis / Public Health / Regression Analysis / Remote sensing / Risk Factors / Seasons / Social aspects / Social Class / Socioeconomic Factors / Socioeconomics / Spatial analysis / Surface temperature / Temperature / Time Factors / United States / Urban areas / Urban Population / Warning systems / Weather