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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
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Journal Article
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
2019
Overview
Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.
A method of tracking changes in estimates of the remaining carbon budget over time should help to reconcile differences between these estimates and clarify their usefulness for setting emission reduction targets.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
Subject
/ Budgets
/ Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations
/ Climate
/ Environmental Policy - legislation & jurisprudence
/ Feedback
/ Global Warming - legislation & jurisprudence
/ Global Warming - prevention & control
/ Global Warming - statistics & numerical data
/ Goals
/ Human Activities - legislation & jurisprudence
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ International Cooperation - legislation & jurisprudence
/ Paris
/ Science
/ Tracking
