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Considerations Regarding Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Inflation in Romania in the Last Decade (2013-2023)
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Considerations Regarding Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Inflation in Romania in the Last Decade (2013-2023)
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Considerations Regarding Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Inflation in Romania in the Last Decade (2013-2023)
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Journal Article
Considerations Regarding Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Inflation in Romania in the Last Decade (2013-2023)
2023
Overview
The main objective of the present material is to identify some nuances of fiscal and monetary policy in Romania over the last 10 years and their descriptive-resultative impact on the most important macroeconomic aggregates, with a focus on economic growth and inflation. Although it represents the Keynesian solution to relaunch this type of economy, the fiscal expansion and the promoted expansionary monetary policy no longer generated the same anticipated positive effects (increased consumption, increased income and private investments, etc.), because they are conditioned by the reaction of private economic agents to fiscal incentives. Regarding monetary policy, the adoption of the direct inflation targeting strategy adopted in August 2005 and, implicitly, ensuring price stability as the main mission of the NBR and a way to support long-term economic growth, combined with the ability to be independent in the use of debt instruments and with the introduction of a flexible exchange rate, strengthened the credibility of the central bank by giving it the explicit establishment of a numerical inflation target, the accepted range of fluctuation (the width of the target band) and the horizon for reaching the target. As a result, the last decade has seen extremely low inflation targets (-0.6% in 2015, 4.6% in 2018 - the highest -, 2.6% in 2020). In the last year, the annual CPI inflation rate, after reaching a maximum in November 2022 (16.76%), followed an anticipated downward trajectory throughout the projection interval, maintaining still higher values (14.53% in March 2023·), but with a clearly downward forecast (7.1% forecast at the end of2023). The disinflationary path was marked by the group of energy goods, both against the background of the evolution of fuel prices, whose annual variation felt strong favorable effects, and as a result of the extension of the scope of the support scheme for the payment of electricity bills starting from January 01, 2023. The inflation rate would decrease to 4.2% in December 2024 and to 3.9% in March 2025. This, given the risks induced by the Covid pandemic and the persistence, even the amplification, of the military conflict in Ukraine and related sanctions imposed on Russia.
