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Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries
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Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries
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Journal Article
Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries
2005
Overview
During the last four decades the average total fertility rate in OECD countries witnessed a dramatic fall: from 2.9 in 1960 to 2.0 in 1975 and then to 1.6 in the last 1990s (reaching 1.25 in Southern Europe). With the exception of the United States, all advanced countries now have fertility rates well below the replacement rate of 2.1. In the absence of either sharp changes in fertility behavior or large inflows of immigrants, their populations are set to shrink, particularly in Europe. Still, within this generalized fall, cross-national differences in fertility behavior have remained significant. By 2000, fertility rates ranged from 2.1 in the United States to over 1.8 in France and Norway to less than 1.3 in Greece, Italy and Spain. Most standard accounts attribute this fall in fertility rates to a shift in personal preferences over the size of the family due to either changes in religious beliefs or growing female participation in the labor market. Yet, even though the ideal number of children for men and women 20-34 years old has declined, it is fairly similar across the European Union at around the replacement level of 2.1.
Publisher
American Economic Association
