Journal Article

Quantifying the Impact of Human Activities on Hydrological Drought and Drought Propagation in China Using the PCR‐GLOBWB v2.0 Model

Wu, Fan, Ren, Liliang, Sheffield, Justin, Liu, Yi, Yuan, Shanshui, Fang, Xiuqin, Yang, Xiaoli, Jiang, Shanhu

2024

Overview

The economic and human losses caused by drought are increasing, driven by climate change, human activities, and increased exposure of livelihood activities in water‐dependent sectors. Mitigation of these impacts for socio‐ecological securit is necessary to gain a better understanding of how human activities contribute to the propagation of drought as water management further develops. The previous studies investigated the impact of human activities on a macro level, but they overlooked the specific effects caused by human water management measures. In addition, most studies focus on the propagation time (PT, the number of months from meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought), while other drought propagation characteristics, such as duration, magnitude, and recovery time, are not yet sufficiently understood. To tackle these issues, the PCR‐GLOBWB v2.0 hydrological model simulated hydrological processes in China under natural and human‐influenced scenarios. The study assessed how human activities impact hydrological drought and its propagation. Result shows that human activities have exacerbated hydrological drought in northern China, while it is mitigated in the south. The propagation rate (PR, proportion of meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought) ranges from 45% to 75%, and the PT is 6–23 months. The PR does not differ substantially between the north and south, while the PT is longer in the north. The PR decreases by 1%–60% due to human activities, and the PT decreases (1–13 months) in the north and increases (1–10 months) in the south. Human activities display significant variations in how they influence the propagation process of drought across different basins. The primary factors driving the spatial pattern of drought disparities are regional variations in irrigation methods and the storage capacity of reservoirs. Plain Language Summary Under the combined impact of climate change and human activities, economic and human losses caused by drought in China have been increasing year by year. To mitigate the impact of disasters, we conducted research using PCR‐GLOBWB v2.0 model to investigate how human activities have altered hydrological drought in China. And the role of human activities in the propagation process of drought was explored. The results indicate that human activities have intensified hydrological drought in northern China, while providing some alleviation in the southern regions. Human activities disrupt the natural processes of drought propagation, resulting in a decrease in propagation rates. Furthermore, human activities have shortened the propagation lag time of drought in the north, while increasing it in the south. Additionally, smaller basins are more sensitive to human activities compared to larger basins. Our study reveals the impact of human activities on hydrological drought and drought propagation, providing valuable insights for the development of more effective drought adaptation strategies. Key Points We used the PCR‐GLOBWB v2.0 model to study the impact of human activities on the process of drought propagation Human activities play a varying role in the propagation process of drought in different river basins Human activities has led to a decrease in drought propagation rates and shortened/prolonging the drought lag time in northern/southern China

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Basins / China / Climate and human activity / Climate change / Disaster management / Disasters / Drought / drought propagation / Economic models / Economics / Emergency communications systems / human activity / Human influences / humans / Hydrologic cycle / Hydrologic drought / Hydrologic models / Hydrologic processes / hydrological drought / Hydrology / Impact analysis / Irrigation / Lag time / Livelihood / meteorological drought / Mitigation / Nucleotide sequence / PCR‐GLOBWB hydrological model / Precipitation / Propagation / Recovery time / Regional variations / Runoff / Storage capacity / Storage conditions / water / Water management / Water resources / Water shortages / Water storage